Context: The CSTO exercises “Unbreakable Brotherhood 2026” and “Barrier 2026” took place in Belarus in October 2026. SB. Belarus Segodnya reported that they concluded on October 16. The exercises involved more than 1,500 military personnel from Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Uladzimir Bely, the chief of the General staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, said the exercises were taking place amid a global military and political crisis. He accused Western countries of preparing for a new war.
On October 14, 2026, First News Channel reported that Grynkewich’s “Theory of Victory” calls for preemptive strikes against Belarus. The broadcast included a statement from Belarus’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Belarus strongly condemns the statements of General Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who presented the so-called ‘Theory of Victory.’ This concept envisages launching preemptive strikes on Belarusian territory using drones and ground-based robotic systems,” the presenter cited.
Next, a clip was shown of Ruslan Varankou, the spokesperson for the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, making a statement:
“The North Atlantic Alliance’s aggressive rhetoric is becoming increasingly systematic. Despite the lack of threats from Belarus and any real grounds for conflict, NATO is planning to increase its military presence near the borders and launch strikes against a sovereign state.”
On October 12, Grynkewich presented “Theory of Victory” at the Warsaw Security Forum. The published videos and transcript of his speech make it clear that he described the alliance’s response to an enemy attack. First, NATO would repel the initial attack. Then, if the attack continued, NATO would halt the enemy’s advance. If necessary, NATO would crush the enemy’s forces and combat capability. The general did not name Belarus or specific strike targets.
Belarus is mentioned in an article in The Wall Street Journal. So are the Kaliningrad Oblast and the St. Petersburg area. The newspaper describes the long-range missiles as intended to strike Russian command posts and air defense systems in these regions. Other media outlets have reported this information, citing the initial publication.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the concept is based on the work of retired U.S. General Chris Donahue, the former commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa and the Allied Land Command. However, the sequence of actions described by the newspaper contradicts the idea of a preemptive strike, which is defined as striking first before the enemy attacks. In this scenario, drones and ground robots repel the Russian attack. At the same time, long-range missiles would target Russian command posts and air defense systems, including those in Belarus. This would weaken Russian defenses, allowing NATO ground forces to launch a counteroffensive.
In other words, both Grynkewich’s statement and the description in The Wall Street Journal focus on responding to an attack. Citing the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, News.by presented this scenario as preparations for a first strike against Belarus. At the same time, they attributed the mention of targets on Belarusian territory, taken from a newspaper article or another source, to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
* The First News Channel is another name for News.by, a news outlet owned by Belteleradiocompany.
