Context: On October 9, 2026, Turkmenistan hosted a CIS summit to celebrate the Commonwealth’s 35th anniversary. This year marked the first time that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian participated as a special guest. He proposed creating a “CIS+1” format to promote cooperation in energy, trade, transportation, and other areas. Meanwhile, Moldova had already notified the Commonwealth of its withdrawal. According to a Moldpres report, its membership is set to officially end on April 8, 2027.
On October 9, 2026, a video was published on the YouTube channel, Grigory Azaryonok. Belarus. In it, host Ryhor Azaronak linked withdrawal from the CIS to subsequent wars.
“Take a look at the countries that have left the CIS. The Pribaltika* countries, for example, were never members, but all the other former Soviet republics were — and two countries have left. Georgia left, and Ukraine left at one point, under Yushchenko. Georgia under Saakashvili. And both ended up at war. So that's the pattern: leave the CIS, and you’re in for a war.”
In Georgia’s case, however, the sequence was reversed. The war with Russia began August 8, 2008. On August 12, President Mikheil Saakashvili announced the country’s withdrawal from the CIS, four days after hostilities began. The Georgian parliament unanimously supported this decision on August 14, and the Foreign Ministry sent a note to the Commonwealth’s Executive Committee on August 18. According to the charter, the process takes one year. Therefore, Georgia’s membership in the CIS officially ended on August 18, 2009. The withdrawal was a reaction to Russia’s actions, not a precursor to the war.
In Ukraine’s case, Azaronak was wrong about both the sequence of events and the president’s name. Viktor Yushchenko served as president from 2005 to 2010. Ukraine did not withdraw from the CIS during his presidency. Ukrainian authorities announced the start of the withdrawal process in March 2014, after Russia had annexed Crimea. In a statement released on March 20, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly cited Russia’s actions and the Commonwealth’s inability to protect the country’s territorial integrity as the reasons for the decision. In 2018, Ukraine ceased its participation in the CIS’s statutory bodies under President Petro Poroshenko. Thus, Russia’s aggressive actions preceded Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Commonwealth.
Furthermore, CIS membership did not spare other countries from armed conflict. Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. There was fierce fighting in September 2022 on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. All four countries remained members of the Commonwealth.
*The term “Pribaltika” came into widespread use during the Soviet era. Since Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia regained their independence, the term is no longer used in official terminology. Its use can be compared to using the name “Belorussia” instead of “Belarus.” While “Belorussia” is still used in Russian, it does not match the country’s official name and may be seen as outdated. The term “Pribaltika” is only used in direct quotes in this article. The editorial team uses the term “Baltic States” throughout the rest of the text.
