Context: A shipment of 30,000 metric tons of Belarusian potash is expected to arrive in the United States in October 2026, according to industry news agency Argus Media. Donald Trump stated that Washington is preparing a “massive deal” with Belarus and expects to purchase potash for “significantly less” than from Canada. However, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated that it is impossible to transit Belarusian potash to the U.S. through Lithuania because European Union sanctions prohibit it.
On September 30, 2026, Piotr Piatrouski responded to a question about the implications of Donald Trump’s post regarding the potash fertilizer deal when speaking on Alpha Radio and SBTV. He linked recent Polish-Belarusian diplomatic contacts to Warsaw’s potential to profit from potash transit. To support this claim, he cited the modernization of the railway junction on the border with Belarus.
“The Poles do it not because they have suddenly seen the light and decided they want to improve relations with Belarus. That’s not why they’re doing this. There’s one simple reason: they smell money, they see an opportunity to make money from transit, and of course they’ve jumped right in. What’s more, if you look at what they’re doing, they’re currently upgrading a transshipment hub and other railway infrastructure in the Lublin Voivodeship, on the border with Belarus, at their own expense, without EU funding. Why? To increase throughput and Poland’s transit capacity.”
Poland does indeed plan to modernize the Małaszewicze railway junction on the Belarusian border. Its capacity is expected to roughly double to more than 30 train pairs per day after the renovation. Construction work is planned to be funded by the Polish budget.
Preparations for the project started in 2017. At that stage, the European Union covered 85% of the costs. In other words, European funds were involved in the project.
Even after the EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian potash, Poland continued to prepare for the modernization. In January 2022, Warsaw applied for EU funding for construction work, with the European Union expected to cover half the project’s cost. Poland did not receive this funding, though. In 2023, the authorities decided to modernize using state funds. The decision to use its own budget, which Piatrouski linked to the prospect of potash transit, was made several years before the current negotiations over shipments to the United States.
The project then stalled. Work resumed in January 2026 when the company managing the Małaszewicze infrastructure was transferred to the state-owned railway company PKP PLK. This occurred two months before the United States lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash. Trump did not mention the possibility of a massive deal to purchase it until September, which was eight months after work on the project had resumed.
The Polish authorities cited the growing volume of traffic between Asia and Europe, primarily cargo from China, Japan, and South Korea, as the reason for expanding the hub.
