Context: On 26 February 2026, the leaders of Belarus and Russia met in Moscow for a Supreme State Council of the Union State meeting. The gathering was timed to coincide with the integration anniversary. In April 1996, almost 30 years ago, Aleksandr Lukashenko and Boris Yeltsin signed a treaty establishing the Community of Belarus and Russia. A year later, they agreed on the Union, and three years later, the Union State emerged. The Belarusian politician formally heads this association to this day. Following the current negotiations, the parties involved have decided to introduce train services between Smolensk, Orsha, and Vitsebsk.
On 19 February 2026, a week before the Supreme State Council meeting, the prospects of Belarus and Russia integrating were discussed on the First Information Channel. Aliaksei Audonin, a guest on the program Aktualnoe Intervyu, said that neighbouring countries view the Union State as a successful development model. When discussing the advantages of unification, the Znanie Society’s chairman of the board noted:
“Other post-Soviet countries are looking at the Union State, fully aware that integration offers the opportunity to achieve much more and ensure stable economic growth.
The Weekly Top Fake team tested this claim. Data from the World Bank on the economic development of post-Soviet countries since the late 1990s shows that Belarus has not achieved significantly higher growth rates than other post-Soviet states by integrating closely with Russia. For example, Armenia’s economy has grown faster than Belarus’s in terms of GDP per capita over the last 30 years. Over the same period, Kazakhstan’s economic performance is comparable to Belarus’s. In other words, countries outside the Union State demonstrate comparable or superior development outcomes.
We also found inconsistencies in Audonin’s other assertions. The guest on the program stated that Belarusians are “beneficiaries of the processes taking place in the Union State”:
“We are experiencing stable economic growth, low inflation, and low unemployment alongside high rates of industrial production. In general, we are increasing not only the volume of production, but also the range of products.”
According to Belstat’s official data, the dynamics are different at the beginning of 2026. Last year, GDP growth in Belarus slowed down. In January 2026, it fell into negative territory, reaching just 98.8% of the January 2025 level. Meanwhile, the economies of all other EAEU members, except Russia, were growing.
Industrial production is also declining. The downswing began as early as last spring, with production down by 3.5% by January 2026. In the manufacturing sector, production had fallen by almost 8%.
The expert described inflation as low, but it amounted to 6.8% by the end of last year. Meanwhile, the price of food products increased by almost 9%. In terms of price growth rates, Belarus is average in the Eurasian bloc. It is overtaken by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while Armenia and Russia have lower inflation rates.
